13 FEBRUARY 2025
Something appears to be stirring in the US economy.
We mentioned last month how corporate “animal spirits” have been rekindled since the election with businesses espousing a more constructive tone on hiring and investment plans.
This is now being confirmed by recent data points.
The chart below shows the monthly survey of manufacturing activity in Philadelphia (blue line) compared to the nationwide Manufacturing ISM (red line).
There tends to be tight relationship between the two, so January’s surge in the regional index suggests firms across the country are embarking upon a more expansionary phase.
If the red line follows suit over the next few months, it will add weight to the prospect of a sharp increase in US GDP growth this year.
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