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A Global Gulf

02 APRIL 2026

A Global Gulf

Middle East Share of Global Oil Supply

Saudi Arabia accounts for more than 10% of global oil production. Including Iran, Iraq and the UAE, the Middle East collectively underpins a significant share of the world’s daily energy supply – making the region’s stability inseparable from global economic stability.

Supply Shock and the Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck

The current conflict has removed more than 6 million barrels per day from the market. That figure alone would be serious. What makes it more acute is that the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil supply and a substantial share of LNG passes – has been severely constrained. The Gulf’s energy supply isn’t just being cut; it’s being stranded.

Why Oil Supply Shocks Drive Global Inflation and Markets

Why does this matter? The global energy system is structurally reliant on a narrow set of producers and a single critical chokepoint. When that system is disrupted, the consequences are swift, affecting commodity prices, inflation, trade balances and financial markets simultaneously, and is difficult to offset.

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