05 FEBRUARY 2026
Why is gold rising despite higher real yields?
Gold prices have broken their long‑standing inverse relationship with US real yields. Structural demand from Central Banks, geopolitics and systemic risk have overwhelmed the traditional rate sensitivity that typically anchors gold prices.
Historically, the gold price (red line) has moved inversely to US real yields (blue line). Lower real rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding bullion, while higher real rates usually pressure gold prices.
However, since 2022, this relationship has sharply weakened. Gold has surged to all‑time highs despite real yields climbing to multi‑year peaks. This “decoupling” signals a major shift in how the market values gold.
What are the structural drivers behind the divergence?
Together, these factors dilute gold’s historical sensitivity to real rates, reinforcing its role as a strategic portfolio diversifier.
What are the investment implications?
Investors should adapt their strategies to these broader macro trends:
These tools can help gauge when the current gold bull market may slow or reverse, especially as traditional valuation anchors like real yields diminish in importance.
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This communication is provided for information purposes only. Bentley Reid believes that, at the time of publication, the views expressed herein represent fair opinion; however, no assurance can be given that any illustrated or referenced performance will be achieved or repeated. All data and graphical information are believed to be accurate at the time of capture but may be subject to change and may not reflect current conditions. Fluctuations in exchange rates may cause the value of investments to rise or fall.
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