30 OCTOBER 2025
The fact it’s only been a few months since we last showed this chart proves just how important it is.
Investing is far too complicated to boil the market outlook down to a single factor, but long-dated US bond yields should be on the mind of every investor.
That’s because, throughout the past 50 years, every historic spike in US Treasury yields has been a precursor to a major equity bear market.
This occurred as recently as 2021/22, when the global inflation shock sparked a big increase in US borrowing costs that ultimately triggered the 2022 downturn in stocks.
Importantly, bond yields remain largely under control, despite lingering concerns over fiscal largesse and inflation.
This suggests the stock market rally can continue well into 2026.
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