19 FEBRUARY 2026
Why are base metals rising if China’s growth is slowing?
Base metals prices have defied the odds, rallying alongside the broader commodity market despite slowing economic growth in China. This is noteworthy given China’s position as the world’s dominant importer of industrial metals.
Understanding the dynamics
China’s real GDP growth softened to 4.5% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with property sales and fixed asset investment lagging – conditions that typically weigh on base metals demand.
How is green energy demand offsetting traditional weakness?
While traditional demand drivers appear subdued, they are being offset by China’s green energy and electrification push. This surge in demand boosts the need for copper, aluminium and other base metals tied to renewable energy, grid expansion and infrastructure projects.
Why are supply constraints tightening the base metals market?
Years of underinvestment, ongoing mine disruptions and stricter environmental regulations have constrained production, amplifying the impact of even modest demand growth.
Strategic stockpiling provides structural support
More strategically, China is building inventories of key commodities as a buffer against geopolitical risks and supply-chain disruptions. This suggests base metals prices could remain well supported, even if broader economic growth headwinds persist.
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